On this edition of Indiana Issues, our panel discusses the Governor’s 2019 Legislative Agenda, increasing teacher pay, and President Donald Trump’s latest approval numbers in the Hoosier state.

0:00 – Introduction
1:00 – Eric Holcomb’s 2019 Agenda
16:00 – Increasing Indiana Teacher Pay
23:00 – Trump’s Approval Ratings
28:00 Predictions & Prognostications

Our panel includes Libertarian Mark Rutherford, Democrat Jamar Cobb-Denard, Mary Beth Schneider of the Statehouse File and Republican State Senator Jim Merritt.

On this edition of Indiana Issues Television, we preview the 2019 Legislative session.

0:00 – Introduction

1:00 – Hate/Bias Crimes

7:30 – Indiana State Budget

12:30 – Possible Impeachment proceedings against Attorney General Curtis Hill

20:00 – Medical marijuana

24:00 – Possible Cigarette tax increase

25:45 – Political Predictions

Our panel includes Libertarian Lindsey Marie, political writer Adam Wren, Democrat Lara Back and conservative radio talk show host Rob Kendall.

Indiana Issues is recorded at the Edge Media studios in downtown Indianapolis

In our second Ivy Tech Works Podcast, we talk with Academic affairs Provost Kara Monroe about the school changing its semester system from 16 weeks to eight weeks so students can increase their chances of completing their educations.

The podcast runs 13 minutes.

I have to admit to being torn when it comes to a new deal the Indiana Pacers are currently negotiating with the city of Indianapolis, State of Indiana and Capital Improvement Board.

As first reported last week in my political gossip column, the Cheat Sheet, the Pacers are trying to work out a 25-year deal with the aforementioned parties.  From what I’ve been able to gather it looks like the Pacers would agree to stay until 2044 if the city/state/CIB could figure out a way to take care of the operational costs of Bankers Life Fieldhouse which would be by some estimates to the tune of about $25 million annually.  There is also talk about the city/state/CIB making improvements to the Fieldhouse which could also run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Now granted, this would not be the first deal the Pacers and the city/CIB have reached.  In fact, this would be the third one in the last 10 years. The first one was back in 2010 when the City of Indianapolis worked out a three-year deal with the Pacers to assume the cost of the Fieldhouse.  The Pacers got a $33 million loan for operational expenses, and the longer they stayed, the less they had to pay back. There was a second deal reached in 2014, to the tune of $160 million.  That one was for 10 years, and the terms were similar; the Pacers agree to stay, and the CIB took care of the operating costs and upgrades.

As someone who can appreciate what professional sports teams can do for a city, particularly the downtown hospitality industry,  I cringe when these deals get so one-sided that state and local governments are primarily performing economic fellatio on the private sector; see Amazon.  And at a time when local governments are dealing with limited financial resources, there is the public perception of misplaced priorities, particularly when it comes to crime, potholes, and homeless panhandlers.

It will be interesting to see how this all works itself out.   Right now, according to my sources, all the parties are basically mapping out there positions and what they would like to see.  The challenge, of course, is how will all this get paid for, will there be a ticket tax on events, a new hotel tax, an expansion of the professional sports development district to capture new revenue?  And then there are the other questions of how does a new downtown hotel fit into this, what’s in it for the convention center, does Lucas Oil fit into this anywhere and what about a new soccer stadium? And since any deal would likely need some kind of legislative stamp of approval, what do other lawmakers ask for in their districts in exchange for their support of any new Pacers deal?

As I stated in the beginning, I go back and forth on deals like this.  I can appreciate the economic impact they have on the city, but a bad deal, in my opinion, is worse than no deal at all.

As Indiana lawmakers prepare to debate such issues next session as bias crime legislation and increasing the tax on cigarettes, recent polling shows strong support from Hoosiers for both across party lines.

Indy Politics surveyed 600 likely voters last month, 62 percent supported a $2 increase in the cigarette tax while 60 percent favored a hate crimes statute.

In this year’s Old National Bank / Ball State University Hoosier Survey of more than 600 adults, 72 percent of respondents said they would support an increase in the cigarette tax if part of the revenue went to a tobacco prevention program to keep kids from using tobacco and for programs to improve health and well-being.

When broken down by party affiliation, 65 percent of Republicans in the Ball State survey supported the cigarette tax increase while 78 percent of Democrats favored it.

In the Indy Politics poll, 53 percent of Republicans supported increasing the cigarette tax, while 67 percent of Democrats favored it and 70 percent of independents.

On the issue of hate crimes, 47 percent of Republicans in the Indy Politics poll supported hate/bias crimes legislation, 31 percent opposed and 22 percent weren’t sure. Nearly 80 percent of Democrats and more than 60 percent of independents supported the measure.

And out of those who said they approve of Donald Trump’s performance as President, 45 percent said they supported hate crimes legislation, 31 percent opposed it, and 24 percent were undecided.

The Indy Politics poll was conducted by Mason Strategies October 15-20 and had a margin of error of 3.9 percent. The Ball State poll was conducted October 2-20 and had a margin of error of 5.1 percent.

While I won’t make predictions, I do have some suggestions on what you should pay attention to regarding Tuesday’s elections.

On this edition of Indiana Issues, we discuss the last Indiana U.S. Senate Debate, the Donnelly “gaffe”, latest poll numbers and the latest from the campaign trails.

Our panel includes Libertarian Lindsey Maria, Democrat Kip Tew, Republican Kyle Walker, and WIBC Political Reporter Eric Berman.

Indiana Issues is produced at Edge Media Studios in Downtown Indianapolis.

A poll of likely voters in Marion County has mixed results for Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett.

The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted by Mason Strategies,  showed that 51 percent of them think the Mayor should be re-elected if he decides to run again in 2019.  Twenty-seven percent thought someone else should be given the chance and 24 percent said they didn’t know.

However, when it came to whether Indianapolis was on the right track, less than half, 47 percent, thought the city was going in the right direction.   Thirty-six percent thought the city was going in the wrong direction, 15 percent said they didn’t know or declined to answer.

With respect to Hogsett’s job approval ratings, 65 percent either strongly or somewhat approved of the job he was doing, while only 21 percent strongly or somewhat disapproved of his job performance.  Fourteen percent were undecided.

The poll was part of a larger statewide sample of likely voters conducted October 15-22, the 300 LV subsample has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

The recent controversy surrounding Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill may not have had much impact on what Hoosiers think of the job he is doing.

As part of our  Indy Politics scientific poll of 600 likely voters, conducted last week by Mason Strategies LLC, we asked about Hill’s favorable and unfavorable ratings.

Hill was accused by several women of groping them in a bar earlier this year,  A special prosecutor declined to file charges saying there was not enough evidence to prove criminal conduct. Attorneys for the women say they are looking at filing a civil suit. Thirty-one percent of the respondents to our survey gave Hill a favorable rating, 22 percent expressed their disapproval and 47-percent said they did not know about the incident, or they did not care.

“The high number of unsure voters means either that the news about Hill has not had a significant impact in the minds of voters, or that they are waiting-and-seeing what comes of the investigation into the claims against him,” said Mason Strategies pollster Stephen Spiker. “This survey was conducted entirely before yesterday’s announcement.”

Hill’s approval rating is higher among Republicans (38%-11%) than Democrats (22%-34%), and among men (34%-27%) compared to women (28%-17%), but in all cases, more than 40% of these subgroups remain unsure about his job performance.

“The high number of unsure voters means either that the news about Hill has not had a significant impact in the minds of voters, or that they are waiting-and-seeing what comes of the investigation into the claims against him,” Spiker noted.

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The survey also included the following results…

• Governor Eric Holcomb’s approval ratings were at 61-percent.
• President Donald Trump’s approval and job performance ratings hovered near 52 percent.
• Vice-President Mike Pence was at 55 percent.
• On whether the country was on the right track, only 46 percent said yes, but when asked whether the state of Indiana was on the right track, 56 percent said yes.
• In the Secretary of State’s race, Republican incumbent Connie Lawson polled in at 45 percent, Democrat Jim Harper had 37 percent and Libertarian Mark Rutherford had 4 percent.
• The poll also asked Hoosiers if they supported the creation of some kind of hate crimes law as well as an increase in the state cigarette tax as long as the proceeds are dedicated to treating the public health costs assorted with smoking.  Sixty-two percent supported an increase in the cigarette tax, while 60 percent supported a hate crimes statute.

The poll’s margin of error was 3.9 percent.

You can view the polling memo here.

Tomorrow we will unveil poll results for Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett.

(Media are free to cite these numbers, however, credit must be given to IndyPolitics.Org and Mason Strategies LLC)

An Indy Politics statewide scientific poll of 600 likely Hoosier voters shows Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Braun entering the final stretch of the contest with a four-point lead over Democrat incumbent Joe Donnelly.

The poll, conducted by Mason Strategies LLC with a margin of 3.9 percent, showed Braun leading Donnelly 47-43, Libertarian Lucy Brenton had three percent of the vote and seven percent were undecided.

Because of the margin of error and numbers of undecided voters, Stephen Spiker of Mason Strategies said despite the four-point difference, the race is basically a tie.

“When applying the margin of error to each candidate’s vote share, the race is statistically tied. However, two weeks before the election you’d rather be Mike Braun than Joe Donnelly with these numbers,” Spiker said.

The poll also indicated that Donnelly’s vote against Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court might be having some impact, albeit not as much as Republicans might have hoped.   Thirty percent of likely voters said they more likely to vote for Donnelly because of his vote against Kavanaugh while only 35 percent said they were less likely. And 32 percent of likely voters said Donnelly’s vote did not matter.

Some of the poll’s other highlights on the U.S. Senate race include…

• There is no difference in voter enthusiasm. 72% of Braun voters say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic to vote, compared to 74% of Donnelly voters. 42% of Braun voters say their enthusiasm is “extreme”, to 41% of Donnelly voters.
• There is a 29-pt gender gap: Men prefer Braun 55% – 36%, while women prefer Donnelly 39% to 49%.
• There is not a significant education gap: the ballot is tied among those with a college degree, and Braun leads 48%-43% among those without.
• Independents favor Donnelly 48% – 37%. Donnelly also has higher support among Democrats (90%) than Braun does among Republicans (85%). That is not enough to overcome the state’s partisan lean.
• In particular, Braun only leads self-identified moderate Republicans 66% to 23%; however, this is fewer than 20% of self-identified Republicans. Donnelly has the support of 90% of self-identified conservative Democrats.
• Braun is leading 83% to 7% among those who approve of Trump’s job performance; Donnelly leas 84% to 6% among those who do not. This suggests the race has become nationalized, as neither is winning a significant crossover.

“In a state that Donald Trump won by almost 20 points, Joe Donnelly needs a lot of things to break his way. Some of them are, but it may not be enough as voters in both parties consolidate and turn out,”   Spiker noted.

The two candidates will meet for their next and final debate on October 30.

The poll was conducted from October 15-21.  You can view the toplines here.

Tomorrow we will unveil approval ratings for Donald Trump, Eric Holcomb, Curtis Hill as well take a look at the Secretary of State’s race and two major legislative issues Indiana lawmakers will likely face when they return in January.

(Media are free to cite these numbers, however, credit must be given to IndyPolitics.Org & Mason Strategies LLC as the source.)