If you’re expecting any surprises in Tuesday’s elections here in Indianapolis, forget about it.  No matter what happens, it will all make absolute perfect sense.

Whether Joe Hogsett or Chuck Brewer becomes Mayor or whether Democrats or Republicans take control of the City-County Council, there is a perfect explanation for all of them.

Allow me to break it down…

Mayor Joe Hogsett

• Very easy explanation.  Marion County leans Democratic and Joe has had a 4-to-1 advantage over Chuck in fundraising.  And although Hogsett got negative press at the end, you could argue it came too late to make a difference.  Throw in an 11-thousand straight-ticket vote advantage (provided they show up) and Hogsett gets sworn in on January 1.

Mayor Chuck Brewer

• Low turnout will be Chuck’s best friend.  Already, voter turnout is a third lower than what it was in 2011.  And if those trends continue on election day, we’re looking at a turnout of 20 percent.  Also throw in the fact, that Hogsett has never really energized the black community so they may not come out they way they have in the past.  And Hogsett’s non-committal answer Friday during a debate on whether he would keep the city’s Black Police Chief didn’t help.  And then add in the curse of everyone thinking your election is a fait accompli, some folks may not bother showing up, but the other guy’s people do.

Who Gets the Council?

The current Council make up is 15-14, Democrat.  Eliminate the four at-larges and Republicans have a 14-11 majority.  However, District 1 is held by Jose Evans who flipped from D to R a couple years ago and he is not running for re-election.  So in reality, that number is more 13-12, Republican.  So with that backdrop, here’s how we figure out who’s in control.

A Democratic-Controlled Council

• Once again, it all comes to turnout.  Since Democrats start out with 12 seats on the Council, they only need a net pickup of one.  Which means they need to gain a seat that they don’t have.  Their likely  targets are Christine Scales (District 3) and up until last week Jeff Miller (District 16) I will explain later.  They may also target Janice McHenry (District 6), Ben Hunter (District 19)  and Bob Lutz (District 22).  All three are in Districts that lean slightly Democratic, however all three are pretty good in the constituent service department.     Any gain of one of these seats, and provided they don’t lose any (see District 2 race below), and Democrats get control.

A Republican-Controlled Council

• In a weird way, the GOP may actually have a clearer path to taking back the Council than the Democrats.   Remember, they already hold 13 seats so if they can hold their ground, they can keep the Council.  And once again, a low voter turnout may actually help them.  I think the GOP has a very good shot at winning District 2 (Kip Tew vs. Colleen Fanning), the District leans R (54-46) and Fanning is a hard worker and is on television.    The GOP also has a good shot at keeping District 3 (Christine Scales) and District 16 (Jeff Miller).   Both Scales and Miller have independent streaks and their constituents love them.  Particularly Miller, as illustrated when Democrats in his District came to his defense when the Marion County Democratic Party put out an attack mailer and got called on the carpet by my colleague Matt Tully.    The Rs also have to hold on to McHenry, Hunter and Lutz’s seats as I have outlined above.

Like I said, any of these scenarios is likely.  And while I think the political odds favor Hogsett for Mayor and the Republicans for Council, nothing will surprise me.  Well, one thing might, write-in candidate Sam Carson becoming Mayor and the Libertarians get the tie-breaking vote on the Council.

Hey, anything is possible, so don’t be shocked when it happens.

We’re doing an online poll over at our sister blog Indy Politics regarding Indy’s upcoming Mayoral and City-Council races.  If you have a second, feel free to fill it out.  With the low voter turnout we’ve been seeing, it will be interesting to see what the results are.  They will be posted on Monday.

Click Here to Take the Survey.

Let’s face it, up until now the race for Mayor of Indianapolis has been pretty boring.  Up until now.

You see, I was watching the October 16th debate on WISH-TV between Democrat Joe Hogsett and Republican Chuck Brewer.  It was pretty standard stuff and the two candidates actually seemed to agree more than they disagreed.

And then there was the question about Covanta. (14 minutes into the debate)

Covanta was the recycling company that entered into an agreement to address the city’s waste issue.  The Mayor’s office says it will promote recycling, opponents have said it was bad for the city and would not encourage recycling.

So what does this have to do with the Mayor’s race?

Well, when the question came up during the debate, Hogsett said he couldn’t speak to it because of a conflict of interest.  Under the Rules of Professional Conduct (See Rule 7.1), Indiana attorneys cannot do anything that would adversely affect a client.   There’s a conflict because Convanta was represented by Bose Public Affairs, which is owned in part by Bose McKinney Evans where Hogsett works and lawyers from his firm worked on the deal.

Now here’s where it gets interesting, in an April 8 column in the Indianapolis Star, Hogsett called the justice center plan “troubling” and said city leaders should “slow down”.  Well guess what, the firm lobbying on behalf of the city for the Justice Center was  also Bose Public Affairs, which Bose McKinney Evans,  where Hogsett works, is part owner.  And since the Justice Center deal didn’t go through, an argument could be made that Hogsett’s statement had an adverse impact on a client which his firm had a contractual, legal relationship.

Now later in the debate Hogsett said he would work to carry on the work that Mayor Ballard had done, so that might have mitigated some of the damage.  We’ll see.

Maybe this Mayor’s race just got more interesting.

By the way, I did ask Hogsett about the Justice Center and whether that presented an ethical challenge back in May.  You can hear his response here (it’s at 9:00).

Watching Democratic Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is a lot of like watching comedian Larry David on Curb Your Enthusiasm.  There’s lots of yelling, ranting and screaming, except David knows you’re not supposed to take him seriously.  It would be nice if Sanders knew that too.

He has been preaching his message of “economic fairness” and “income inequality” to some pretty big crowds.  It’s a popular message, but so is heroin these days, but that doesn’t mean it’s good for you.

Two cornerstones of Sanders’ platform are raising the minimum wage and raising taxes on the “wealthy”.  In what universe are these good ideas?

Political columnist (and my hero) George Will spelled it out perfectly in his latest column why Sanders doesn’t get it.

1. Entitlements take money from the working and producing class and gives it to those who don’t work.
2. Big regulatory government favors those with the smarts and the wealth to make rules favorable to them.
3. Near zero-interest rates have only enriched the top 10 percent of wage earners who want to invest in high-yield equities.
4. Family breakdowns mean more children will be raised in poverty.

However, despite those four main points, the biggest cause of “income inequality” Will points out is freedom.  We have the freedom to choose our careers and our paths and those decisions usually result in our station in life and market forces will play a big role in determining how much we make.   This is the guy who manages the cloud server will likely make more the guy who is a server.

This is also part of the reason why I enjoy teaching.  I want students to have the skill set that it takes to not only survive in today’s competitive world, but also thrive.  You don’t get there with more government and more taxes, but with more opportunity to create wealth and be the master or your own destiny.

Yes, life will throw us a curve ball on occasion, but even then challenges can be turned into opportunities.  But then again, sometimes it’s easier to complain about how “unfair” life is as opposed to taking more control of your own.

This is going to sound weird coming from a guy who makes a living, in part, by pointing out society’s ills and idiocy, but is it my imagination or has the whining in this country gotten completely out of control?

As Americans it’s our God-given right to complain, but it seems that there is lot more it these days and a lot fewer people taking control of their own destinies and fixing their lots in life.

For example, at tonight’s Democratic Presidential debate I am going to do a shot of whiskey every time I hear the words “income inequality” or “raise the minimum wage”.   I should be passed out by 22 minutes into the forum.  It would be nice if someone would say “improve your skill set” or “pay off your debt and get an instant raise.”

But the whining isn’t limited to the Presidential stage, if I hear one more #BlackLivesMatter person go on about police action shootings, but ignore #BlackOnBlackCrime which is a lot more likely to bring Black lives to a premature end, I’ll scream.

And just so you feel better, the whining isn’t limited to the far left.  I can’t decide whether to break out the brie or gouda when the far right begins its whinefest.  For example, in Indiana, there is a certain segment of population who thinks if they can’t discriminate against someone based on sexual orientation or gender identity, everyone will start sporting  tattoos that look like three sixes and a giant dragon will be hanging out at the beach.

And don’t even get me started on the clown car that is Congress (the far right is actually criticizing Paul Ryan for not being conservative enough, seriously?!) or the clown that is Donald Trump.

Now, don’t get me wrong.   I totally get the need to vent from time to time.  I make a nice living doing it.  But somewhere along the line we went from venting to whining.   Hey America, it’s time quit whining, grow a pair, and get to work fixing your own problems!

Both Indy Mayoral candidates Joe Hogsett and Chuck Brewer spelled out their positions on crime as well as other issues this Saturday at forum sponsored by the Indianapolis Urban League and 100 Black Men.

As a public service, Indy Politics and Indiana Barrister  are posting the presentations by the candidates, as well as the question and answer period in our Leon-Tailored Audio vault.   We have also provided links below to their various positions on jobs, education and crime.

Both candidates spoke for a total  90 minutes.

Crime/Public Safety

• Joe Hogsett Public Safety Plan
• Chuck Brewer Public Safety Plan

Education

• Chuck Brewer Education Plan
• Joe Hogsett Education Plan

Jobs

• Joe Hogsett Plan for Youth Summer Jobs
• Chuck Brewer “Envision Indy” Economic Development Plan

Additional Proposals

• Chuck Brewer Plan to Tackle “Food Deserts”
• Joe Hogsett’s Ethics/Transparency Plan

Have you ever had one of those days where something so bizarre occurred that it took a long time for you to even believe it happened?

Well I did and today was that day.

I was downtown patronizing one of my usual places when my buddy, the shop owner, asked me what I was planning to talk about on my evening radio program on WIBC-FM.

I told him I just got a breakdown of the murder stats in Indy from January to September 30, such as times and days and was  going to discuss it with the audience.

He asked what I found and I told him that we would talk about things like the time, day and hour of the city’s murders.  And I casually, off the cuff, said the day a murder was most likely to occur was Thursday at 10 p.m.  (When I double-checked my notes it was Sunday at 11 p.m., but you get the point).

That’s when the bizarre event occurred.

A woman was there with her son who looked about 11-12 years old and she got in my face telling me she didn’t appreciate me talking about the city’s murder rate because it scared her son and because it was Thursday and they lived downtown so he thought he would be a murder victim.  My jaw dropped to the floor.

I told her that I was a political commentator and this is what I do for a living, but she wasn’t having any of it.  She told me that I should be more sensitive about who was around me and stormed out of my friend’s place.  (Note, they had been there for an hour looking around and not buying anything and the son was completely embarrassed by his mom).

Had she stuck around I would have pulled up my notes from my phone and told her that the chances of her pre-teen being a murder victim were slim to none, because the data showed that Indy’s most likely murder victim was a black male in his 30s, a description her son did not fit, since he was white and not in his 30s.

Also had she stuck around I would have told her the data showed that there has only been one murder in the downtown area between January and September 30.  I also would have told her that unless her son was involved with drugs or guns, or getting into an argument his chances of someone popping a cap in him were also slim to none.  And I didn’t even get into the discussion that most victims and suspects have a pre-existing relationship.

All I know is that she stormed out with her son.  The best I can hope for is that she swings by the proctologist sometime soon and has that giant pole pulled out of her butt, because she definitely needs it, among other things.

It looks like when it comes to giving zeroes, the Hamilton Southeastern School District has a zero tolerance policy.

According to the student handbook at Fall Creek Intermediate school, if a student doesn’t turn in an assignment, they don’t get a zero.  Instead, according to the policy, “Late or missing work will be indicated in Skyward with a zero or NHI (not handed in) and marked as missing initially until completed.  All work is to be completed unless a teacher utilizes alternative means to assess based on differentiation.  Zeroes are not acceptable.”

Now, before we go any further, I did reach out to HSE but they respectfully declined to come on my radio program, but they did say any parent who had questions could contact them.  I wish they would have sat down and chatted because this policy raises a number of issues.  First of all, in real life, if you don’t turn in your work, you get fired, and on the surface, this policy doesn’t seem to reinforce that message.   And as someone who has taught for 12 years, I know when you have a troubled student and you need to intervene, however, students and families need to know there are consequences for not completing work, and usually that consequence is failure.  If part of the job of school is to prepare students for the real world, this policy seems to take things in the other direction.

We’ve all heard stories about contests where every kid gets a ribbon, or the school system that no longers labels students as “talented and gifted” because it might hurt the self-esteem of other students.  I think these are bad ideas because these policies don’t promote excellence,they promote mediocrity and they really don’t help kids in the long run.

It would be nice, if we lived in a world where you didn’t have to give zeroes, but unfortunately we do.  And some days those zeroes can act as a wake up call.     There shouldn’t be a zero tolerance policy for zeroes.

I caught a lot of grief recently for a column that I wrote recently arguing that local law enforcement should use its own version of “stop and frisk” as part of a strategy to address Indianapolis’ growing murder problem.

I was accused of being insensitive to the black youth who would likely be the targets of such tactics.   Well, after having a conversation Sunday with community activist Pastor John Girton, Jr. I am more convinced that “stop and frisk”,  done properly,  will work.

Girton is doing a 30-day vigil at 30th and Martin Luther King, Dr to draw attention and seek solutions to some of the violence that is plaguing  Indianapolis.

And  I asked Girton about the unlicensed guns that a lot of the bad guys have and how do you go after the illegally possessed weapons while still respecting the 2nd Amendment?  Girton had a pretty good response that he got from a grandmother.  He told me that many of the people who live with the bad guys know where the illegally possessed guns are, but are afraid to do anything, for fear of their safety.  A fair point.

This is why I thought local law enforcement should set up a simple hotline number that these folks can call, so when Pookie leaves with the house with his piece, the cops know he is out and the urban terrorist can be arrested and taken off the street.   Grandma’s call and warning to law enforcement can easily give them the probable cause that they would need to make the stop, frisk and subsequent arrest.

I’ll leave it to law enforcement to work out the exact details, but you can’t complain about police “picking on black youth” when the it’s the family, who I argue is our first line of defense in going after the bad guys, is the one who is letting the cops know where the little “robin hoodlums” are.

And for those of you who don’t like my idea, here’s a fun fact.  Since Girton began his campaign early this month there have been nearly 10 murders here in Indy.  Maybe if someone had been stopped and frisked, someone else might still be alive today.

By the way, you can hear my entire conversation with Girton by clicking here.