By Abdul-Hakim Shabazz & Andrew Weissert

A survey conducted by Indy Politics and ARW Strategies of registered voters in Marion County between August 13th and 23rd shows voters have mixed feelings about the direction of Indianapolis but are largely positive about the city’s mayor, Joe Hogsett. 

Key findings include:

Voters are split on the direction of Indianapolis.  40% of registered voters believe that the city of Indianapolis is headed in the right direction, while an equal 40% believe that the city has gotten off on the wrong track.  Democrats and younger voters are most optimistic about the direction of the city, while African American, Republican, Independent, and older voters are more pessimistic. 

Fifty-four percent of Democrats believe the city is headed in the right direction, while just 31% of Republicans and 24% of Independents believe the same.  52% of 18–34 year-olds and a plurality (46%) of 35-49 year-olds like the direction of Indianapolis, while just 24% of 50-64 years (versus 52% Wrong Track) and 31% of seniors (versus 43% Wrong Track) are as enthused.  Only 30% of African Americans are happy with the direction of the city, while 37% think it’s gotten off on the wrong track. 

Interestingly, those in Center Township are far more optimistic about the city than those in the surrounding townships.  51% of Center Township voters believe the city is headed in the right direction, while just 34% say it’s gotten off on the wrong track.   

Mayor Joe Hogsett is largely liked by the voters in the region.  A majority (55%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett and 57% approve of the job he’s doing as mayor.  Just 29% have an unfavorable opinion of him, while 32% disapprove of the job he’s doing.

His Democratic base is the driving force behind his positive image and job approval.  78% of Democrats approve of the job he’s doing and just 13% disapprove.  Independents are close to evenly split on the mayor. 38% approve of the job he’s doing and 42% disapprove.  Perhaps surprisingly, less than half of Republicans (49%) disapprove of the job he’s doing, while 41% approve of his job performance. 

 While the mayor is getting high marks, he hasn’t solidified re-election just yet.  Asked whether voters would vote to re-elect Mayor Hogsett or if they’d vote for someone else, 37% said they’d vote for Hogsett, while 32% said they’d vote for someone else.  31% said they’re undecided.

While voters seem to like Mayor Hogsett, as reflected in his image and job approval numbers, 31% of his own Democratic base are undecided on whether they’d vote for his re-election.  35% of Independents and 47% of Republicans would vote for someone else, while 40% of Independents and 25% of Republicans are undecided. 

“Despite how his re-election numbers look on the surface, they should probably be interpreted with caution,” said Andrew Weissert of ARW Strategies. “Without an actual named opponent, voters will often create a perfect vision for whom they would want in a hypothetical matchup.  Obviously, the eventual opponent won’t be perfect and so I think Hogsett is probably in a little better shape than these suggest, but still has his work cut out for him.” 

Driving home this point is that among Democrats, 52% say they’d vote for Hogsett but 31% are undecided.  A near-equal 29% of those who approve of the job he’s doing as mayor are also undecided.  First, Democrats will likely coalesce around their party’s nominee if he runs again.  Second, a large portion of voters who approve of the job he’s doing will also likely side with Hogsett ultimately.  You rarely see a voter say they like an elected official and approve of the job they’re doing but then go vote them out of office.

In addition, we also provided a breakdown on Hogett’s re-election by Township and race/ethnicity; support, oppose and undecided.

By Township

• Center – 55/21/23
• Decatur – 19/34/26
• Franklin – 28/55/16
• Lawrence –  31/25/53
• Perry – 33/29/37
• Warren 37/33/29
• Pike 24/34/42
• Washington – 45/23/31
• Wayne – 36/38/25

By Race/Ethnicity

• Whites – 38/23/38
• Blacks – 35/27/37
• Latinos/Hispanic  – 43/11/44
• Other – 26/41/31

With respect to the Indianapolis City-County Council, the body’s approval rating was 39 percent, while 31 percent thought unfavorably.   Twenty-nine percent were undecided.  Twenty-eight percent had a favorable view of Council President Vop Osili; 21 percent disapproved and 51 percent were unsure.   Republican leader Brian Mowery had a favorable rating of 24 percent. 19 percent thought unfavorably 58 percent had no opinion.

Tomorrow we will take a look at crime, public safety, and the Marion County Prosecutor.

Abdul-Hakim Shabazz is the editor and publisher of IndyPolitics.Org.

Andrew  Weissert is the President of ARW Strategies. 

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Methodology

This poll was conducted between August 13th and 23rd, 2021.  In all, 400 interviews were achieved among registered voters in Marion County, Indiana.  200 of these responses came from text message surveys to cell phones and 200 of these responses came from online surveys. The Margin of Error for this survey is +/- 4.9% at a Confidence Interval of 95%.

Although Indiana gained population since the last census, most of that growth has been in Central Indiana.

According to the census data released this afternoon, Hendricks, Boone,  Johnson, Hancock, and Hamilton County all saw double-digit percentage growth since 2010,  Hamilton led the way with 26.5 percent growth, followed by Boone at 25 percent, Johnson at 15.8 percent, and Hancock at 14.1 percent.

Marion County saw eight percent growth and Allen County say 8.5 percent.

The County that saw the largest percentage drop in population was Switzerland county at 8.3 percent.

Below is a list of population percentage increases and decreases…

Adams + 4.1%                   Allen + 8.5%

Hendricks +20.2%          Pike (-4.6%)

Henry    (-1.1%)             Porter + 5.4%

Bartholomew +7.1%        Howard +1.1%

Posey (-2.7%)             Benton  (-1.5%)

Huntington (-1.2%)   Pulaski (-6.6%)

Blackford (-5.1%)        Jackson (+9.6%)

Putnam  (-3.3%)        Boone +25%

Jasper (-1.7%)            Randolph (-6.4%)

Brown   (1.5%)           Jay (-3.6%)

Ripley (0.6%)            Carroll + 0.7%

Jefferson (+2.2%)     Rush (-3.7%)

Cass (-2.8%)                 Jennings (-3.2%)

St. Joseph +2,2%            Clark + 9.9%

Gibson (-1.5%)                 Noble -0.2%

Washington (-0.3%)    Grant   (-4.8%)

Ohio (-3.4%)                     Wayne (-3.6%)

Greene (-7.1%)                  Orange (0.1%)

Wells +2.0%                          Hamilton +26.5%

Owen (-1.2%)              

Hancock +14.1                     Parke    (-6.8%)

Whitley +2.5%                   Harrison +0.7%

Perry (-0.9%)           Lake (0.5%)

Johnson +15.8%            Scott (0.8%)

Clay  (-1.6%)                Knox (-5.6%)

Shelby +1.4%                  Clinton  (-3%) 

Kosciusko +3.7%           Spencer (-5.5%)

Crawford (-1.7%)     LaGrange +8.9%

Starke (0.0%)                Daviess +5.5%

Lake (0.5%)                    Steuben +0.7%

Dearborn (1.3%)            LaPorte (0.9%)

 Sullivan (-3.1%)             Decatur +2.8%

Lawrence (-2.4%)           Switzerland  -8.3%

DeKalb +2.5%                         Madison (-1.1%) 

Tippecanoe +7.8%                 Delaware (-4.9) 

Marion +8.2%                       Tipton (-4.4%)

Dubois  +4.2%                        Marshall (-2.0%)

 Union (-5.7%)                 Elkhart +4.8%

Martin (-5.1%)                      Vanderburgh (+0.2%)

Fayette (-3.6%)                 Miami  (-2.5%)

Vermillion (-4.8%)            Floyd +7.9%

Monroe +1.3%                        Vigo (-1.6%)

Fountain (-4.4%)            Montgomery -0.5%

Wabash (-5.8%)           Franklin (-1.3%)

Morgan +4.2%               Warren (-0.8%)

Fulton   (-1.7%)            Newton (-2.9%)

Warrick +7.1%                     White – (0.2%)

Indiana lawmakers will use this data to draw the next set of statehouse and congressional maps.

I have been covering and writing about Indianapolis’ city budgets since 2004.  I’ve seen some reasonable budgets and some not-so-great budgets.

The most recent $1.3 billion budget unveiled by Mayor Joe Hogsett has me concerned, particularly when it comes to public safety spending. What has me worried is this, once again, looks like a temporary solution to a long-term problem.

Allow me to explain.

The Hogsett administration is using about $150 million in American Recovery Act Funding to address a lot of the city’s public safety needs.

The two big items, in my opinion, are using the federal funds to hire 100 additional police officers over the next three years and increasing by five times the amount of money given to violence prevention groups.

Let’s start with the police officers.

I’m all for hiring more cops, mainly because it allows officers to do more patrols and maintain a presence in our neighborhoods. Also, more officers mean they can respond better to situations as opposed to filling out paperwork. The problem, however, is that we are breaking a top rule of finance, using one-time money to pay for long-term expenditures. The money to hire the officers is only good for three years, so the big question is what happens after that? This reminds me of when Bill Clinton, back in the early 90s, put 100,000 police officers on the street. Still, when the federal funding ran out, local governments were strapped for cash. Police numbers dropped, primarily due to retirement and attrition, because locals couldn’t afford to keep them. I worry we are about to repeat that same mistake.

Secondly, intending to hire 100 new officers over the next three years, my other question is, where will they come from? NPR recently did a story on police hiring and retirements. A June survey of nearly 200 departments by the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF), a nonprofit think tank, shows a startling 45% increase in the retirement rate and a nearly 20% increase in resignations in 2020-21 compared to the previous year.

But perhaps my biggest concern is increasing the funding for violence prevention programs. Currently, the Central Indiana Community Foundation gets about $3 million annually to dole out for crime prevention. Under the Mayor’s current budget, that number would be increased to $15 million over the next three years. Once again, we have an issue of giving folks money that may not last too long. Still, more importantly, if the CICF’s job has been violence prevention, they haven’t done a very good job of preventing violence. For the past several years, all we’ve had to show for handing out millions of dollars is more violence and dead people. And don’t blame the COVID-19 pandemic. Indianapolis had been seeing an increase in homicides since 2013; it just increased during the pandemic where we saw 124 murders; in 2019, that number shot up to 154. So on average, between 2013 and 2020, Indianapolis averaged 160 murders a year, so I have a hard time feeling confident that giving the CICF more money will help solve our crime issue. ,

As I said, I’ve covered a lot of Indianapolis city-county budgets; some were good, and some were not so good. The jury is out on this one until it’s completed in late October. Still, I don’t feel good about using one-time funding for ongoing expenditures and giving more money to an organization whose track record in violence prevention is questionable at best.

by Nate LaMar

I can’t sleep; the fall of Kabul has me too upset. I don’t pretend to be a combat veteran. But I’m very saddened as we spent too much time (20 years), talent (friends’ lives lost), and treasure (billions). I’m not here to debate policy mistakes; just very distraught and concerned, not only for the future of women and girls in Afghanistan, but also for those who helped us, and for veterans who served there.

This past weekend, my social media and email have “blown-up,” with veterans trying to get former translators and their families out by any means necessary, to include getting members of Congress personally involved. A photo of a helicopter over the US Embassy in Kabul is hauntingly reminiscent of a similar photo atop the US Embassy in Saigon on April 30, 1975, when South Vietnam fell.

A friend since childhood, Eric Creviston of Muncie (who also served as Superintendent of Blue River Valley schools), was in the Indiana National Guard when his unit helped to establish Afghanistan’s military academy. Later, Afghanistan began sending cadets to West Point. One, in particular, whose name I cannot publish for security reasons, is currently struggling to get his family out of Afghanistan (I am helping to get an Illinois Congressman involved with his family’s case).

My class’ only Afghanistan casualty was Jim Walton of Boston, MA. He and I had a few Arabic classes together. Jim initially branched Infantry, but later became an Aviation officer. He served in Germany, Haiti, Korea, Honduras, and Iraq. Lieutenant Colonel (LTC) Walton was killed in action in Kandahar by an improvised explosive device (IED) on June 21, 2008. A nearby Forward Operating Base (FOB) was named FOB Walton. It served as a training facility for the Afghan Army’s Non-Commissioned Officer (NCO) Academy and Joint Readiness Training Center. I shudder to think the Taliban are now using FOB Walton.

On average, there are 22 military/veteran suicides per day. My West Point class has lost more to suicide than we have to combat. Thanks to Indiana’s annual Run For The Fallen, I have come to know several fellow veteran distance runners. These include Eric Michael of Ferdinand, IN. He served in Helmand Province in 2009, where he lost many fellow marines, but has lost a few others from his unit to suicide since then. Recently, he decided to run 22 miles to highlight the fact that we are losing 22 per day to suicide. He has challenged others to run 22 miles or even 2.2 miles to bring attention to this sad fact.

With the fall of Afghanistan, my fear is that veteran suicide will increase. Therefore, I urge all of you reading this to visit, call, text, email, and/or mail any veterans you may know to make sure they are okay. When on active-duty, this was known as the “battle buddy” system. Too many veterans “self-medicate” and/or keep a weapon handy. Leaders (whether you were an officer or NCO), please try to contact your troops, even if you have fallen out of touch with them. For various reasons (young families, lengthy commutes to jobs, etc.), younger veterans tend not to be “joiners” of Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), American Legion, Amvets, etc. with their support structures. Therefore, please focus your contact efforts on younger veterans, who were more likely to have served in Afghanistan and/or Iraq.

Veterans, your efforts were not in vain. We, as Americans, support and want only the best for you. As in the Book of Worship for U.S. Forces, please be comforted by words of our National Hymn’s (God of Our Fathers) third stanza:  “From war’s alarms, from deadly pestilence, Be thy strong arm our ever sure defense; Thy true religion in our hearts increase, Thy bounteous goodness nourish us in peace.”

Nate LaMar serves as Military Academy Liaison Officer (West Point recruiter) for East-Central & Southeastern Indiana.

Is America a racist country?  Of course not, even though some people think it is.

Allow me to explain.

In response to the President’s address to the joint session of Congress, U.S Senator Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) said, “America is not a racist country.”   You could have sworn that he just told a bunch of pre-schoolers that there was no Santa Claus nor Easter Bunny.

Scott was immediately vilified for speaking the truth. He was called everything but a child of God.  He was also called “Uncle Tim,” a play on the “Uncle Tom” attack. But, of course, anyone who has ever studied the true history of Uncle Tom’s Cabin knows the novel humanized the plight of slaves in the early to the mid-19th century. Tom is actually more of a Christ-like figure who is martyred and beaten to death for refusing to give up the whereabouts of two escaped slaves. In later “interpretations” of the novel, “Uncle Tom” is viewed as a more subservient character.

But I digress.

America is not a racist country.  America is a country that has racists in it, but it is not a racist country.

Let’s take police action shootings, which some say is the epitome of racism. But, of course, for those who say America is a racist country, the first thing they point to is police action killings of black men, mainly unarmed black men.  Well, a close look at the data shows there is more to the story.

Since 2015, more than 6,241 people have been shot and killed by law enforcement in the United States.  And out that more than 62-hundred, 15-hundred were black, and 129 of them were unarmed men. And 25 of them had a known mental illness. So when you do the math, that amounts to 22  killings a year on average.  Now is that good? No, but it sure isn’t the open season on black folks some people would like for it to be.

Now let’s take a look at education.

In 1940, when the census started keeping data regarding high school graduation rates, it was seven percent for blacks; that number was 24 percent for the entire nation.  Fast forward 80 years, the black graduation rate is 88 percent while the country’s is 90 percent.  In college, the gap is wider, but improvement is still being made.   In 1940, only five percent of the nation had a college degree; that number was one percent for blacks.  Fast forward to today, that number is 36 percent for the country and 26 percent for blacks.

We’ve talked about education and police action shootings, now let’s talk about wealth.  This one is a little trickier.  Because black wealth is only 14 percent of white households, black economic spending power was $1.4 trillion in 2019, which is larger than Mexico’s economy.  This tells me we need to spend less and invest more.

And when it comes to political power,  America had eight years of a black President (you know who I’m talking about).  And while she is not “black” in the pure ethnic sense of the word, Kamala Harris would not be Vice-President if America was as racist as some people say.  And for the record, there were only five blacks in Congress in 1965, and they were all Democrats; today, that number is 57 and of both parties.

As I said at the beginning of this column, America is not a racist country, but a country with racists in it.   I believe the good guys way outnumber the not-so-nice guys. I also believe that blacks, as a whole, still have challenges that need to be addressed.  But to call America racist, the land where anyone with a good idea and a little bit of luck mixed with smart work can grow up to be a billionaire, or a brilliant political writer and pundit,  is just plain silly.

In this edition of Indiana Issues TV, we look at life in Indiana one-year after COVID-19 hit the state.  We also look at how things are going in the statehouse and efforts to curb the Governor’s emergency authority.

Our panel includes Eric Berman of WIBC Radio,  Laura Albright of the University of  Indianapolis, and Andrew Downs, Director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Purdue University Fort Wayne.

Here is the rundown of our topics…

•  1:00? – COVID-19, One Year Later
• 8:00? – Governor’s Emergency Authority
• 17:00? – BREAK
• 19:00? – How are things going this session?
• 25:00? – Holli Sullivan Appointed SOS
• 29:00? Predictions and Prognostications

Indiana Issues TV is recorded at the Edge Media Studios in downtown Indianapolis

On this edition of Indiana Issues, we look at the impact COVID-19 has had on the state of Indiana for the past year.

Our guests include Brian Tabor of the Indiana Hospital Association, Patrick Tamm of the Indiana Restaurant and Lodging Association, and Ball State economist Mike Hicks.

The program runs for one hour.

On this edition of Indiana Issues, our panel takes a look at the election with a little more than two weeks to go.

Our panel includes Democrat Lara Beck, Republican Joey Fox and Libertarian Lindsey Marie.

Here’s the rundown

0:00 – Introduction

1:00 – Two weeks to E-Day

7:00 – Trump v. Biden

14:00 – Break

15:00 – Holcomb v. Myers v. Rainwater

20:00 – CD 5 Race

25:00 – Attorney General’s Race

28:00 – Predictions and Prognostications

Indiana Issues is taped at Edge Media Studios in downtown Indianapolis.

For those of you who aren’t aware, my father passed away this past summer due to complications from COVID-19. He was 83 and had diabetes. He managed to get through the COVID, but he had a heart attack and a stroke, and later his kidneys failed. Despite that, he had doctors, which helped him manage his pain, and at the end of the day, he was at rest when he made his transition.

Now, as much as I have my own issues with the President, I don’t wish COVID-19 on anyone. It is a dangerous disease that has the potential to take you out. And if you are older the age of 65, and the President is in his 70s, you are a lot more likely to feel the effects of COVID-19 if you contract it. I wish him and his wife nothing but the best for a speedy recovery.

While I want the President and the First Lady to recover, I hope they and their supporters learn something from this. Three things I hope they learn are to wear a mask, social distance and wash your hands or use hand sanitizer. This isn’t hard, folks. If you wear a mask, you decrease your chances of spreading the disease. This comes in handy if you’re asymptomatic and can spread the disease even when you don’t know you have it.

Secondly, I realize there are quite a few people who have (or in this case had) a problem with the stay at home orders and other COVID-19 government-related mandates. So did I, particularly here in Marion County, where bars have to close at midnight, even though the Indianapolis infection rate is under five percent. But once again, the point of the mandates and the rules are to save lives, control the spread, and make sure hospital facilities aren’t overrun with COVID-19 patients.

Just take a look at the states which have opened up too early; they are in a much worse place than they should be. For example, take the state of Wisconsin. According to POLITICO, COVID-19 has ravaged the state. Deaths rose by 53 percent over the last two weeks, the rate of infections has shot into double-digits, and hospitals are sounding the alarm on capacity issues.

Luckily, Indiana, under Governor Eric Holcomb, has managed to avoid that. By opening in a methodic, reasonable manner, the state has managed to control and slow the spread of COVID-19. Now, of course, no good deed goes unpunished. When my website, Indy Politics, polled with Change Research last month, Holcomb went from a 20-point lead over Democrat Dr. Woody Myers to a six-point lead, with most of his support defecting to Libertarian Donald Rainwater.

I want those people who are mad about the mask and social distancing mandate to think about your hero, Donald Trump. Trump, who was not crazy about a mask mandate, probably now wishes he would have had one in place; that way, he could campaign over the next month (or at least two weeks) rather than being stuck in the east wing of the White House.

As I said, it’s not hard, folks. And I don’t wish COVID-19 on my worst enemy, especially after going through what I went through with my own Dad. So do everyone a favor, mask up, wash your hands, social distance, and keep some hand sanitizer with you. And if I may paraphrase an old saying, the life you save could be someone else’s.

On this edition of Indiana Issues TV, our political panel takes a look at the recent Indy Politics/Change Research poll on the race for President, Governor, and Attorney General, as well as Hoosier attitudes towards COVID-19.

Our political panel includes Republican Pete Seat, Democrat Kip Tew, and Brad Klopfenstein of the Lawrence Chamber.

Here’s the rundown…

0:00 – Introduction

1:00 – Biden/Trump Pol

l 7:00 – Holcomb/Myers/Rainwater Poll

15:00 – Break

17:00 – Rokita/Weinzapfel Poll

24:00 – Hoosier Attitudes Poll

28:00 – Predictions and Prognostications

Indiana Issues is recorded at the Edge Media Studios in Downtown Indianapolis