Welcome to Spin City
I expected the first independent poll of the Indianapolis Mayor’s race would create quite a bit of spin, however I did think I’d end up paying a visit to the Duncan Yo-Yo factory. In an e-mail sent out by Melina Kennedy campaign manager Nick Buis they downplay the WISH-TV poll…
In 2007, in the final public poll released October 26th, Mayor Peterson, who like Ballard was under 50% a week before the election, held a lead of 43% to 39%. Ballard won the race on Election Day 51% to 47%.
Buis “forgets” that those same polls showed a majority of Indianapolis residents thought the city was on the wrong track. In the WISH-TV poll , 55 percent of the people thought the city was on the right track. And by the time the Star had polled in October 2007, there had already been two polls (one GOP and one WISH-TV) which showed Peterson was extremely vulnerable.
Also in 2007, Peterson’s own internal polls showed the race was tied. Kennedy’s camp has NEVER released their internal polling, instead pointing the County party’s poll. The Ballard people did release theirs showing them a 51-39 lead.
Another fact in all this is that the WISH-TV poll comes after Kennedy has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on television, radio and mailers attacking Ballard. And while we are at it, the poll’s makeup was 47% Democrat, 36% Republican and 24% minority, which is about the general make-up of Marion County. So for Ballard to be 11 points ahead when his baseline is 9 points fewer shows he has crossover appeal and Kennedy has not sealed the deal with her own party.
And even if you take the Marion County Democrats September poll at face value, Kennedy was at 40% in their poll and Ballard was at 38% with the undecides at 21%. The WISH-TV poll shows Kennedy has lost seven points and Ballard has gained six since that poll was taken.
Democrats have also been telling their voters that similar polls showed Julia Carson behind and yet she went on to victory. They forget that Julia had a lot of support in the black churches which carried the day. This time around the church is divided.
My Democratic friends have also been touting polling research that argues 80% of undecided voters break for the challenger in an election. If you subscribe to that theory and the undecided are at 21% then 16.8% go to Kennedy and 4.2% go to Ballard, making the vote totals 49.8% to 48.2%. I could see this being the case if Ballard’s favorable ratings weren’t in the 60s. I would argue at best Kennedy picks up undecided voters 2-to-1 based on more recent research, although I would argue a more reasonable assumption is that they split 50-50.
The one silver lining in Kennedy’s cloudy sky is that she has a lead in individuals who have voted early. However, early voting does not equal more voting. In the last election with satellite voting there was no significant increase in voter turnout. The deck chairs were just rearranged on the Titanic. And efforts by the Baptist Ministers Alliance to bring down 1,000 people last Sunday on buses to the polls fell short by about 700.
Now this is by no way a shoe-in for either candidate and now they both have to kick things into high gear. However, I think Kennedy has the longer road to tow as she has not sewn up her base completely and we have 5 days left. Anything can happen, and in politics a day is a lifetime. But the nice thing about spin, anyone can do it.
