The Numbers Game
With about six weeks to go before the Mayoral election, I found something pretty interesting; the role that numbers have played in this race. When I say numbers, I mean statistics. Whether it is crime, jobs, polling, it seems that numbers have had a much more noticeable role this time around than in previous races. And what’s even more interesting is how the numbers change and the candidates have made subtle adjustments to adapt.
For example, in early Greg Ballard ads, the incumbent talked about how crime was down. At the time it was. However, the latest Indianapolis Metropolitan Police figures show crime, overall, is flat. However murder is up 11% over last year, from 72 to 80. Now if you’re in the Melina Kennedy camp don’t get too excited. Her commercials have been talking about how aggravated assaults are up, when in fact, according to those same figures assaults are down 11 percent.
Look at the job numbers. In the beginning of the Mayor’s race all we heard was that the city lost 35,000 jobs since Ballard took office. That number has changed. Since January, the employed workforce has grown by nearly 27,000. So that 35,000 number has now just turned into thousands of jobs. Also when the Ballard folks talk about new jobs, you will notice the phrase is “job commitments”.
If crime and job stats aren’t enough, how about taxes and fees. We hear a lot about the 140 or fees and taxes increased on small businesses, even though the Greater Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce played a role in those fee increases. While Kennedy likes to focus on 140, Ballard’s number is 98, the percentage of the population that was paying for those services because the initial fees weren’t covering the costs. Now the Mayor’s side says the two percent of the population that are using the services are actually paying the full cost of them.
Speaking of percentages, here’s a new number, 43. Forty three is the percentage the of the tax increase the Mayor’s campaign folks say Melina Kennedy supported raising back in 2005 when the County Option Income tax was increased to 1 percent.
And finally, what are numbers without polling. The Marion County Democratic Party released a poll showing the race statistically tied, however critics come back and say in a county where Democrats have an inherent 10-point lead over Republicans that number shows the challenger is having trouble.
You have to love this stuff. And keep it in mind as the Mayoral debates get underway. Of course the only real numbers that matter are the ones on Election Day; which by the way is 44 days away as I write this, 43 days when it gets published on the web.
