Polling For Dollars
If you follow Marion County politics and the Mayor’s race, you’ve heard by now that Marion County Democratic Chairman Ed Treacy “released” poll results to supporters tonight showing the Mayor’s race a practical tie. Here is the e-mail that went out.
S T R A T E G I C M E M O R A N D U M
To: Interested Parties
From: Chairman Ed Treacy
Date: September 22, 2011
Re: Marion County Polling Results
Over the evenings of September 20-21, the Marion County Democratic Party conducted a survey of 403 likely voters in Marion County. The research was conducted by Jim Riggs, Ph.D., of Riggs Research Services, a locally-based professional public opinion polling firm. The sample was geographically and demographically representative. The results came back this morning, and I wanted you to be the first to know the exciting news in the race for Indianapolis Mayor.Forty-seven days before Election Day, Democratic nominee Melina Kennedy has overtaken Republican incumbent Greg Ballard. Weeks before outside observers anticipated, Kennedy has taken the lead and is only picking up her pace. Conventional wisdom dictates that an incumbent below fifty-percent is in trouble.
We just got the results back and are still digesting them, but wanted to share with you the exciting news first. Melina Kennedy now leads Greg Ballard 40-38. The full results are as follows:
The candidates in the upcoming election for Mayor of Indianapolis are Melina Kennedy, the Democrat, and Greg Ballard, the Republican. For whom would you vote if the election was held today – Kennedy or Greg Ballard? [If “Not Sure,” ASK:] Well, which way do you lean at this time – Lean Kennedy or Lean Ballard? (N=403)
Response N (Solid Support) Democrat, Melina Kennedy 40 (38) Republican, Greg Ballard 38 (36) Don’t Know or Undecided 21 I am as excited as anyone about Melina’s lead. But our work isn’t done yet. While it is tempting to use these results to sit back and wait for Election Day, it is now that we must redouble our efforts. Twenty-one percent of voters are still undecided. We need to continue to aggressively get our message out to voters.
Would you consider donating $ 50, $ 100 or $ 250 dollars today? Click here to donate to the Marion County Democratic Party.
Democratically Yours,
Edward T. Treacy
Chairman
I think it’s fair to say that what you take from the poll depends on what you brought to it. But here are a few questions.
1. Why not release it to the media (cross tabs an all) instead of supporters and really get some bang for you buck?
2. Why use a firm that by all accounts polls only for Democrats, i.e. Tom Hayhurst in the 3rd Congressional District in 2010 and Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight earlier this year?
3. I’m told frequently on this blog that Democrats in Marion County have a 10-point margin over Republicans, but this poll has them tied?
4. How do you reconcile this with the fact that Kennedy polled last week and her own results had her with a 12-point deficit?
5. Why is Kennedy trying to rally black churches with a big meeting next Thursday at Friendship Baptist Church if her support is solid?
Just a few questions.
