Will Democrats Decide?
Indiana State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is scheduled to announce this morning that he’s running for the U.S. Senate and will challenge incumbent Richard Lugar in the 2012 May primary.
I find this entire dynamic fascinating. Both candidates will bring their own strengths and challenges to the race. Lugar has the advantages of incumbency and fine-tuned, well-honed statewide organization. Meanwhile Mourdock’s supporters have a lot of energy and enthusiasm and there is a noticeable undercurrent of discontent in some Republican circles over Lugar’s record. I also expect both to be well-financed.
However, as the campaign goes forward, the people I’ll be keeping an eye not so much on these two as I will what happens on the Democratic side of the fence. Because I would argue there is a good chance that Democrats may decide who the next Republican nominee might be.
Say what?
If the Lugar/Mourdock gets as competitive as I think it might, then there’s nothing like a reverse “Operation Chaos” to make life interesting for everyone. You remember “Operation Chaos” from the 2008 Presidential election? That’s when Republicans were encouraged to vote in Democratic Presidential primaries to keep the race between Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama going down to the final stretch?
I would not be surprised to see something like that happen here. The foundation is already being laid out for such a scenario. Already the scarce field potential gubernatorial candidates are getting smaller on the Democratic side with Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel taking a pass. And if Democrats can settle on one candidate for Governor and the U.S. Senate, there won’t be much of a reason for to vote in the primary and people like to go where the action is, thus the Republican primary.
And don’t forget, it’s also very likely Republicans will have a gubernatorial primary as well between Congressman Mike Pence, Indianapolis businessman Jim Wallace and another candidate to be named later. So with all the action in the Republican Party, I would not be surprised to see some Democratic gate crashers.
