21 Days and Counting
With three weeks to go until Election Day, I’ve decided to use Sunday mornings as a time to do a bit of prospective analysis on this year’s upcoming contests. While there’s no doubt there is a Republican wave coming, the big question is whether it will hit shore? I’m sure it will, I’m just not ready to predict how much damage it will do.
However looking at some of the recent signs in Marion County, if I were a Democrat in Indiana, I would seriously be thinking about calling 2010 a year and start drawing up plans for my 2012 comeback. Here’s why…
According to my friends at WISH_TV Channel 8, 7th District Congressman Andre Carson is only polling at 50%. Now that doesn’t mean Marvin Scott is going to Washington, D.C., but it does indicate that if the most popular Democrat in a Democratic County is only hitting the halfway point, what impact will that have on the rest of the ticket locally and what does that say about the broader statewide attitude towards Democrats?
Another indicator is that same poll showed Democrat Terry Curry with a seven-point lead over Republican Mark Massa in the race for Marion County Prosecutor. However the Massa camp recently released a poll (with a larger sample and countywide) showing them four points ahead. Frankly, I think the race is a statistical tie and will come down to the wire.
By the way, that same poll had Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard with a 58% approval rating, and that was the 7th District. When you include the rest of Marion County, that number is likely to be in the mid-60s; and this is after this summer’s Indianapolis Metropolitan Police controversies.
And lest I forget, I’m still trying to get a read on what voter turnout will be. As of this blog posts writing, only 151 voters came out Saturday to participate in early voting at one of three polling sites. There were 571 voters who came out this week, for a total of 722 registered voters coming to the polls early out of more than 585,000. I know it’s way early, but for all the talk of get out the vote, these numbers are abysmal.
Granted there are still three weeks left and anything can happen. However, I ran into a very good Democratic friend of mine who is active in the local party and about as sharp as you can get and even he was nervous about what was going to happen November 2.
That says quite a bit.
