Okay, time for the analysis and breakdown of the Scott Schneider victory.  There were a number of factors in play in addition to hard work and communicating with PCs.  Here’s my interpretation of them.

1. Time!   Normally candidates have about 30 days to get organized.  Because of the special session, Schneider had a lot more time than most outside challengers to communicate with PCs.
2. HC/MC Rivalry.  I gave a speech last Friday to the Carmel Rotary club and I was asked about SD 30 and how that would come down.  My prediction at the time was that it would be decided in Hamilton County as the Marion County PCs would be split.  Working in the Schneider camp were State Senator Mike Delph and Cindy Noe; two well-established fixtures in the HC.
3. Anti-Establimentarianism.  Let’s be honest, most PCs are an independent lot and there always a certain amount of resentment towards the establishment (be they Tom John, Greg Ballard, etc.)    This is not a new thing with Vaughn,  It happened with Ike Randolph back in ’06.  It also happened last year in the Greg Zoeller/Jon Costas race for Attorney General.
4. Ideological Shifts.  A good political friend pointed out that the Indiana Senate delegation from Central Indiana is fundamentally more conservative than Indianapolis proper.  Brent Waltz, Greg Walker, Mike Delph, Jim Buck and now Scott Schneider, each replaced a more “moderate” candidate.

So put all these in alignment and you have a Schneider win.   It will be interesting however to see what happens in redistricting next year.  There is talk that Schneider’s District may be redrawn to be further north and encompass more of Hamilton County and the southern portion of his District will be redrawn into Greg Taylor’s District.

Posted: 07|22|09 at 6:54 am by Abdul Hakim-Shabazz
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