Indiana. Indiana. Indiana.
I spent some time yesterday looking at the Electoral Map and came to a startling, but obvious, conclusion. Come election night, Indiana could determine just show how soon the Presidential race ends. It requires a couple assumptions which I don’t think are too far off the plantation.
Let’s assume Barack Obama takes most of the Northeast. He’s got Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and D.C. That gives him 111 Electoral votes.
Let’s assume John McCain does well in the South. He’s Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina and West Virgina. (Put aside the fact some polling data shows a somewhat competitive race in West Virgina and Georgia could switch based the heavy African-American turnout and Bob Barr pealing off some Libertarian-leaning Republicans.) That puts McCain at 62 votes.
Now here is where it gets interesting.
If Obama runs the North Carolina, Virgina and Florida table he’s got an additional 55 electoral votes which takes him to 172. Now let’s keep heading west. McCain gets Lousiana and Arkansas (15 electoral votes) taking him to 77. Obama gets Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and I’m putting Missouri in his column after 100,000 people showed in St. Louis for an Obama rally, 75,000 showed up Kansas City. That takes Obama from 111 electoral votes to 248.
You only need 270 to win. And I still haven’t counted the other half of the country nor Indiana or Ohio.
Neither candidate winning Ohio will put them over the 270 mark. An Ohio win takes McCain to 97 electoral votes and Obama to 268. If either candidate wins both states, McCain goes to 108; Obama 279 and is the next President.
Granted, these are based on some assumptions, but if Obama wins Indiana the show is over and everyone can go home and go to bed because there is no way McCain catch up without pulling some big, giant rabbit out of his hat on the West Coast.
So not only is Indiana in play, it is a crucial place for McCain to stay in the game. I think the fundamentals still favor McCain for a victory here, which is good news for the candidate because he’s gonna need it.
