Pol Watching, Part II
Last month I did a state-by-state analysis of the Presidential race using data gathered from Pollster.com. Since we’re expecting Vice-Presidential picks this week, including keeping an eye on Evan Bayh, here’s a breakdown on where the candidates are. Remember, if there is less than a 3-point difference between the candidates, I consider it a tie.
John McCain
- Alabama, 49-36.
- Arizona, 50-40.
- Arkansas, 47-40.
- Georgia, 48-42-2 (Barr).
- Idaho, 53-37.
- Kansas, 49-37.
- Louisiana, 54-34.
- Mississippi, 51-41.
- Nebraska, 55-45.
- Oklahoma, 50-32.
- South Carolina, 47-37.
- South Dakota, 45-40.
- Tennessee, 50-35.
- Texas, 47-41.
- Utah, 60-30.
- West Virgina, 45-37.
- Wyoming, 53-40.
Barack Obama
- California, 50-37.
- Connecticut, 55-33.
- Delaware, 50-41.
- Hawaii, 61-31.
- Illinois, 52-35.
- Iowa, 47-41.
- Maine, 49-41.
- Maryland, 55-30.
- Massachusetts, 54-35.
- Michigan, 48-43.
- Minnesota, 50-38.
- New Hampshire, 48-42.
- New Jersey, 50-37.
- New Mexico, 49-41.
- New York, 53-32.
- Oregon, 49-42.
- Pennsylvania, 50-40.
- Rhode Island, 53-30.
- Vermont, 60-33.
- Washington, 50-38.
- Wisconsin, 51-38.
Toss-Up
- Alaska, 44-42 (Obama)
- Colorado, 48-45 (Obama)
- Florida, 46-45 (McCain)
- Indiana, 43-42 (McCain)
- Missouri, 47-44 (McCain)
- Montana, 47-45 (Obama)
- Nevada, 45-42 (McCain)
- North Carolina, 48-45-2 (McCain)
- North Dakota, 45-42 (McCain)
- Ohio, 46-43 (Obama)
- Virginia, 47-45 (Obama)
Applying the math to the electoral map, here’s the breakdown.
- Obama – 264 Electoral votes, down 8 from the last survey.
- McCain – 154 Electoral votes, up 20 from the last survey.
- Undecided – 120 Electoral votes.
The biggest move was Georgia, although slightly from the undecided column to the McCain side. Georgia has 15 electoral votes. However, McCain is still defending more traditional red states than Obama is blue. If we did a little speculation and gave the states to the candidate who was ahead, Obama wins 312 electoral votes to McCain’s 226. But don’t get too excited or distressed, November is a long way away.
