Pol Watching
Barack Obama is in Indiana today talking National Security at Purdue University. That motivated me to look at some polling data between Barack and John McCain. Although the national polls show a virtual tie, when you look at the state polling data (which I argue is a more accurate measure) you get somewhat of a different picture.
Using compiled aggregate date from Pollster.com, I’ve put together a list of states where the candidates are ahead and where they are tied. For purposes of this blog, if there is less than a three point difference in the poll, it meets my definition of a tie.
John McCain
- Alabama – 50-35
- Alaska – 45-41
- Arizona – 44-40
- Idaho – 52-39
- Kansas – 48-38
- Kentucky – 49-36
- Louisiana – 55-35
- Mississippi – 50-44
- Nebraska – 52-36
- Oklahoma – 42-37
- South Carolina – 45-39
- Tennessee – 41-36
- Texas – 43-39
- Utah – 52-33
- West Virginia – 45-37
- Wyoming – 53-40
Barack Obama
- Arkansas – 42-39
- California – 52-39
- Connecticut – 53-35
- Delaware – 50-41
- Hawaii – 61-31
- Illinois – 50-37
- Iowa – 45-38
- Maine – 55-32
- Maryland – 55-30
- Massachusetts – 53-32
- Michigan – 47-38
- Minnesota – 51-34
- Montana – 48-43
- New Jersey – 47-37
- New Mexico – 48-38
- New York – 51-33
- Oregon – 48-35
- Pennsylvania – 48-38
- Rhode Island – 55-31
- Vermont – 63-29
- Washington – 50-37
- Wisconsin – 50-40
Virtual Tie
- Colorado – 44-42 (Barack)
- Florida – 45-43 (McCain)
- Georgia – 47-43 (McCain)
- Indiana – 42-42
- Missouri – 44-44
- North Carolina – 44-44
- North Dakota – 43-43
- Ohio – 45-42 (Barack)
- Virginia – 46-43 (Barack)
Applying that math to the electoral map, you get the following breakdown…
- Barack – 272 Electoral Votes
- McCain – 134 Electoral Votes
- Undecided – 129
Of course November is a long way away and four months is a long time and anything can happen, but this is what the race looks like today based on the available poll data.
