It Depends on What You Ask
There is a new poll out on the Governor’s race. It was conducted by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne in partnership with SurveyUSA. The poll asked four questions of more than 400 respondents, was conducted June 10-12 and got four different results. Each question, depending on what was asked, showed the Governor race tied or Daniels winning.
To keep the confusion down to a bare minimum, I’ve included the question, the number of people surveyed and the results. You make your own call.
1. If the election for governor were today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for, Republican Mitch Daniels or Democrat Jill Long Thompson?,”
Daniels – 49%, JLT – 49%. 452 Respondents.
2. “Now I’m going to read the names of the candidates for Indiana Governor. On a scale of 1 to 10 … where 10 means you would vote for CANDIDATE NAME for governor no matter who else was on the ballot … and 1 means you would vote against CANDIDATE NAME for Governor no matter who else was on the ballot … and 5 means you are completely neutral on this race, how likely are you to vote for CANDIDATE NAME?”
Daniels – 5.5, JLT – 4.9. 438 Respondents.
3. “If the election for Indiana Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, how likely would you be to vote for CANDIDATE, very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?
Daniels – 57% likely and somewhat likely, JLT – 43% likely and somewhat likely. 434 Respondents.
4. “If there was an election for Indiana Governor today, which statement would best describe you? One: I would vote for CANDIDATE NAME no matter who else is on the ballot. Two: I would vote against CANDIDATE NAME no matter who else is on the ballot. Three: I might or might not vote for CANDIDATE NAME, depending on who else is on the ballot.”
Daniels – 31% would vote for him regardless, 29% would not vote for him regardless, 40% could go either way.
JLT – 18% would vote for her regardless, 31% would not vote for her, 52% could go either way. 448 Respondents.
After weeding through all that, the poll reached four conclusions…
“Mitch Daniels is leading Jill Long Thompson, but not by much. Daniels’ base is more solidly behind him than Thompson’s is behind her. A large percentage of independents could be swayed to vote for either candidate. Both candidates have regional advantages and the candidate who is able to improve performance in the southern region may be the candidate who wins. ”
Draw your own conclusions.
