Expect No Surprises on May 2
Instead of getting some sleep like I had originally planned to do, I spent the weekend going from political event to political event to get a feel for all three political parties as we get closer to the May 2nd primary. I talked to a number of long time political officials. What I’ve composed is a summary of those conversations. In order to assure candor I asked the officials to speak “on background” which means I can use their comments but not attribute them to any one individual except where warranted. The conclusion that I’ve reached is that no one is quite sure what is going to happen Tuesday, however whatever happens, no one will be surprised at the outcome. Allow me to explain.
In the race involving Senate Pro Tem Bob Garton and challenger Greg Walker, my sources tell me they expect Garton to win his primary, 55-45, but they are still keeping open possibility that Walker can win the race. There are a lot of people working on the Walker campaign, but Garton has a lot of money. The geographics of the district tend to favor Garton, because it is too big to walk door-to-door, so advertising works well. However, recent polling data only has Garton at a 44% approval rating. One source said they wish Garton would have done some negative campaigning and done some damage to Walker. Like I said, everyone expects Garton to win, but no one will be surprised if he loses.
In Hamilton County the big race is the one for County Prosecutor, Sonja Leerkamp versus Paul Felix. Felix got an early start by getting organized, endorsements and putting up a lot of yard signs throughout the county. Leerkamp finally put up signs this weekend. There is some controversy surrounding Leerkamp’s use of a private attorney to do the county’s asset forfeiture work. The attorney, Bruce Petit, has done some work for Leerkamp before, including her divorce and bankruptcy back in 1995. This has caused a stir because Petit gets a third of whatever he successfully collects. That has raised the ire of a number of Sheriff’s deputies because they say there is an attorney on staff who could do the collection and the money would stay in the county. In 2005, according to court records, Petit was paid about $13,000 for his asset forfeiture work. I’m told that once the story broke a number of Leerkamp supporters were energized saying that Felix had attacked her unfairly. Just for the record, the information did not come from the Felix camp.
Moving back down south another race that has peaked a lot of interest is the race for Perry Township Trustee. Challenger Gary Coons is taking on incumbent Jack Sandlin. I’m told there are literally hundred of Coons yard signs. One source told me he had never seen anything like it in Perry Township. He says Koons’ name ID has been brought up tremendously in the Township. Coons also recently received the endorsement of Beech Grove Mayor Donald Wright. I spoke with Sandlin Saturday morning. He said he feels pretty good about his chances of winning re-election. He says people in his township don’t like negative campaigning. He says Coons is a being controlled by the firefighters’ union. He also takes Coons and the firefighters to task saying they have lied about his record and the safety of the equipment in the Township’s fire department. However, when the firefighters go door to door as they have since February, people tend to believe them when they say there are problems in the fire department. The insiders’ bet is that Coons has a 50/50 shot at winning.
Overall this primary will be one where incumbents, who have credible challengers, have a 50-50 shot at winning at best. My colleagues Brian Howey and Matt Tully have both written about these races, and I recommend you check out their writings. After spending time this weekend with both Republicans and Democrats I tend to agree. When people ask me who’s going to win a certain race, I tell them I don’t know. Which is odd for me, I’ll admit. Let me just say this, no matter what happens on May 2, I will not be surprised at the outcome.
